* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 08/12/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 49 57 62 67 72 75 78 79 81 83 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 49 57 62 67 72 75 63 53 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 41 50 60 68 74 63 54 59 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 20 18 12 14 11 9 9 11 11 15 21 17 20 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 -5 -7 -2 0 -2 0 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 71 76 86 102 98 64 68 40 21 9 313 306 312 337 353 15 13 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.7 27.5 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.7 29.0 28.7 29.0 29.8 29.8 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 132 133 131 135 133 141 147 150 148 152 148 152 167 167 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 132 133 131 135 133 141 147 148 145 148 142 145 162 160 167 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 62 62 59 57 56 59 59 61 62 64 63 66 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -28 -34 -32 -36 -46 -46 -27 -31 -26 -24 -17 -16 -6 -17 -15 -27 200 MB DIV -10 -10 -5 -7 1 5 1 21 41 44 13 35 31 27 7 14 -10 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 0 0 -1 2 0 0 -2 -6 -6 -3 -9 -9 -13 -1 LAND (KM) 1569 1428 1329 1245 1162 1021 929 736 534 536 270 113 46 -11 49 44 90 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.4 41.1 42.6 44.0 45.5 48.5 51.9 55.3 58.6 61.5 64.2 66.6 68.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 14 15 16 17 17 15 13 13 12 12 11 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 9 13 18 20 36 49 52 28 41 75 41 27 45 58 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 402 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 24. 32. 37. 42. 47. 50. 53. 54. 56. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 39.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 08/12/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 10.5% 7.2% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.8% 3.1% 0.6% 0.4% 4.1% 7.2% 24.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 9.3% Consensus: 1.9% 7.7% 3.7% 2.3% 0.1% 1.4% 5.2% 11.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 08/12/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 08/12/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 49 57 62 67 72 75 63 53 56 58 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 33 39 47 55 60 65 70 73 61 51 54 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 35 43 51 56 61 66 69 57 47 50 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 36 44 49 54 59 62 50 40 43 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT