* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 08/11/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 50 60 67 71 77 79 81 80 83 83 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 50 60 67 71 77 79 70 47 41 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 39 48 57 66 72 64 44 44 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 17 19 18 10 9 4 6 7 11 14 18 26 17 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -5 -6 -6 0 1 0 -2 -9 -5 SHEAR DIR 68 76 83 90 102 114 81 65 9 328 330 284 288 295 322 334 20 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 28.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 132 128 131 130 131 133 139 149 147 146 149 146 151 157 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 132 128 131 130 131 133 139 149 145 142 143 141 145 151 154 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 57 59 59 59 57 54 53 54 56 56 60 63 66 66 65 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -19 -24 -29 -33 -34 -43 -45 -35 -36 -35 -37 -23 -16 -21 -44 -52 200 MB DIV -7 5 -6 -23 -9 -12 4 0 25 30 47 20 28 17 18 18 13 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -2 -1 0 2 1 4 0 2 -4 -5 -7 -7 -12 -9 -12 LAND (KM) 1756 1724 1681 1569 1469 1292 1125 1015 791 593 483 203 16 -11 -56 -2 -31 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.0 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.0 36.9 38.5 40.0 41.5 44.6 48.0 51.5 55.1 58.6 61.6 64.3 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 15 15 16 17 18 18 16 14 12 12 13 13 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 18 14 5 7 12 13 35 44 63 26 41 54 31 23 39 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 19. 26. 35. 42. 46. 53. 54. 56. 55. 58. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 35.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 08/11/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 9.0% 6.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 8.5% 4.2% 0.8% 0.6% 3.9% 7.6% 25.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 5.5% Consensus: 1.9% 6.7% 3.6% 2.0% 0.2% 1.3% 5.2% 10.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 08/11/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 50 60 67 71 77 79 70 47 41 35 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 42 48 58 65 69 75 77 68 45 39 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 38 44 54 61 65 71 73 64 41 35 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 30 36 46 53 57 63 65 56 33 27 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT