* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 08/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 47 54 58 64 72 80 86 88 90 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 47 54 58 64 72 80 86 88 90 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 33 37 44 54 65 74 81 83 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 19 23 23 24 26 17 13 10 10 9 11 11 14 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -4 -5 -6 -5 -1 -2 -4 -1 -3 -7 -2 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 79 68 61 72 89 113 113 119 71 60 18 336 3 298 302 269 286 SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 140 141 138 135 134 129 131 132 137 149 147 146 148 153 149 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 140 141 138 135 134 129 131 132 137 149 147 146 148 152 145 148 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 58 61 65 59 58 54 54 53 57 60 66 68 75 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -14 -18 -16 -12 -20 -25 -31 -29 -16 -11 -1 0 9 13 16 200 MB DIV 25 17 6 -24 -34 -32 -14 -18 4 1 22 29 68 35 40 67 44 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 1 4 4 6 3 3 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1194 1373 1520 1677 1733 1661 1548 1314 1099 911 807 475 378 409 256 183 0 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.7 31.1 32.6 34.0 36.8 39.7 42.8 46.3 50.0 53.9 57.7 61.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 14 14 14 15 16 18 19 19 18 16 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 11 10 9 9 16 7 10 21 31 49 40 30 37 71 66 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 36. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 19. 22. 29. 33. 39. 47. 55. 61. 63. 65. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 28.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 08/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.7% 7.2% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 12.6% 8.4% 3.0% 2.3% 4.9% 5.5% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 10.2% 5.7% 3.2% 0.8% 1.7% 3.7% 2.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 08/10/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 47 54 58 64 72 80 86 88 90 80 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 41 44 51 55 61 69 77 83 85 87 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 36 39 46 50 56 64 72 78 80 82 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 31 38 42 48 56 64 70 72 74 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT