* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/30/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 32 34 38 44 48 53 59 64 67 72 73 76 75 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 32 34 38 44 48 53 47 35 42 47 48 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 33 35 37 35 30 38 44 50 55 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 15 14 12 9 13 10 12 6 12 8 17 10 20 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 4 10 8 2 2 0 0 -3 -5 -2 -4 5 2 8 -1 SHEAR DIR 231 210 214 245 271 262 276 302 313 294 323 309 331 336 348 325 339 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.5 27.5 28.0 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.2 28.4 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 134 134 140 148 151 157 156 143 146 139 140 138 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 140 134 134 140 148 151 157 151 133 132 124 123 121 121 119 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 60 63 64 65 62 60 60 62 62 60 58 61 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 55 56 58 52 69 54 18 -49 -71 -74 -55 -18 -2 52 57 39 200 MB DIV 8 38 36 16 -4 -22 -2 6 -12 -4 30 24 15 17 36 39 33 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -7 -2 0 2 0 0 1 -6 5 0 4 14 4 7 LAND (KM) 344 306 333 380 354 211 164 116 326 196 -59 -1 131 267 395 367 268 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.5 15.7 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.2 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.0 61.6 63.7 65.7 67.7 71.4 75.3 79.0 82.6 85.6 87.9 89.5 90.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 25 23 20 20 20 18 19 18 17 13 11 7 6 6 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 29 23 26 27 32 33 32 58 57 17 28 15 23 20 24 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 833 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 33. 36. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 23. 29. 34. 37. 42. 43. 46. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 59.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/30/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 8.0% 5.9% 5.3% 3.8% 7.4% 8.4% 13.9% Logistic: 2.5% 7.1% 3.0% 1.3% 0.8% 3.8% 8.9% 34.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 4.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 3.2% Consensus: 1.7% 6.6% 3.3% 2.2% 1.5% 3.9% 6.0% 17.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 06/30/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/30/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 32 34 38 44 48 53 47 35 42 47 48 50 50 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 32 36 42 46 51 45 33 40 45 46 48 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 29 33 39 43 48 42 30 37 42 43 45 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 27 33 37 42 36 24 31 36 37 39 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT