* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/30/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 34 36 38 41 46 50 55 59 64 67 71 74 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 34 32 36 30 28 28 27 34 39 42 46 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 26 26 27 27 32 35 39 44 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 14 19 20 16 19 16 11 5 17 15 14 10 13 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 0 6 2 6 7 4 3 -3 0 0 -4 0 -6 3 SHEAR DIR 216 232 216 208 244 274 282 305 294 263 250 259 233 217 221 183 262 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.3 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 134 135 137 141 153 159 163 161 159 165 156 149 148 141 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 134 135 137 141 153 156 152 144 142 151 141 133 133 125 120 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 11 10 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 59 59 62 63 62 57 50 49 53 52 56 54 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 49 40 31 30 36 17 -21 -96 -115 -66 -22 -21 28 19 18 33 200 MB DIV 48 20 23 18 22 -6 -11 2 -2 17 -3 18 8 46 13 9 1 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 4 4 0 11 9 7 3 -1 -5 3 -4 -5 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 715 526 411 401 442 180 -32 15 -44 -9 -33 -13 33 25 93 5 -65 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.9 16.4 18.1 19.7 21.1 22.2 22.5 22.2 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.9 57.1 59.1 61.2 63.3 67.5 71.4 74.9 77.3 78.8 80.0 81.7 83.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 20 21 21 21 20 16 11 7 6 8 7 7 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 26 35 36 32 28 25 30 37 38 42 63 74 50 29 18 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 16. 20. 25. 29. 34. 37. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 54.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/30/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 9.4% 6.7% 6.0% 4.2% 7.2% 7.3% 10.5% Logistic: 3.3% 12.3% 6.5% 3.5% 2.2% 5.0% 5.8% 15.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% Consensus: 2.3% 8.7% 4.7% 3.2% 2.2% 4.1% 4.4% 9.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 06/30/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/30/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 33 34 32 36 30 28 28 27 34 39 42 46 34 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 32 30 34 28 26 26 25 32 37 40 44 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 28 26 30 24 22 22 21 28 33 36 40 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 20 24 18 16 16 15 22 27 30 34 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT