* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 35 36 38 42 47 51 53 55 56 57 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 35 34 31 35 40 44 46 48 49 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 26 29 32 35 39 40 42 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 13 15 20 20 18 21 14 11 10 19 21 19 16 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 0 6 4 8 4 5 0 0 -2 3 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 180 206 220 220 214 262 287 306 322 308 248 265 265 265 264 289 294 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.3 29.5 28.8 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.3 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 128 131 134 137 145 164 150 158 151 146 145 147 140 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 128 131 134 137 145 164 144 146 133 126 127 128 123 117 117 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.0 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 8 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 57 57 59 60 60 58 52 51 54 65 70 73 76 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 63 46 38 27 25 26 -7 -75 -144 -131 -63 -36 -27 -17 -44 -37 200 MB DIV 47 53 21 11 5 -10 -5 -20 7 6 -14 11 0 43 42 47 60 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 3 6 3 0 12 9 9 6 -4 0 -3 -1 9 7 LAND (KM) 808 762 596 459 390 330 111 10 -2 32 115 129 106 85 145 171 113 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 15.4 17.1 18.8 20.7 22.2 23.3 23.9 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.4 54.3 56.2 58.1 60.1 64.4 68.7 72.7 75.7 77.7 78.6 79.5 80.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 19 19 21 22 22 19 14 10 5 4 6 6 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 23 32 28 28 34 33 24 32 32 37 41 36 16 10 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 35. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 52.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.2% 7.1% 6.4% 4.5% 7.5% 7.6% 9.6% Logistic: 1.6% 6.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.4% 1.4% 2.3% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 6.6% 3.5% 2.4% 1.6% 3.0% 3.3% 5.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 06/30/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/30/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 33 33 35 34 31 35 40 44 46 48 49 50 52 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 31 33 32 29 33 38 42 44 46 47 48 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 27 29 28 25 29 34 38 40 42 43 44 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 22 21 18 22 27 31 33 35 36 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT