* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 38 39 41 43 45 49 53 56 56 56 57 58 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 38 39 41 40 38 42 46 48 49 49 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 33 32 28 33 35 39 41 42 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 14 12 12 17 18 19 19 18 10 14 20 29 25 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 -3 6 5 8 6 1 5 0 3 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 177 178 203 216 219 240 276 291 312 310 316 276 274 302 294 300 282 SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.7 27.9 28.5 29.6 29.0 29.3 28.6 28.0 27.7 28.3 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 130 130 128 129 137 140 148 165 153 156 143 134 131 140 137 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 130 130 128 129 137 140 148 165 144 141 125 115 113 121 119 117 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 12 11 11 11 9 7 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 61 58 57 60 61 60 56 53 56 62 65 69 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 75 65 51 42 25 31 21 -23 -105 -156 -123 -53 -29 -23 -46 -62 200 MB DIV 36 44 49 15 13 12 -15 -9 -2 -1 27 -21 43 27 49 1 16 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 2 3 5 -2 13 15 10 2 5 1 -3 12 7 14 LAND (KM) 847 798 765 616 461 396 245 69 57 4 98 244 233 200 189 269 325 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.3 15.8 17.6 19.5 21.3 23.0 24.4 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.3 52.0 53.9 55.8 57.7 61.7 66.1 70.4 74.0 76.6 77.9 78.1 77.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 19 19 19 21 23 21 18 13 9 6 4 6 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 23 18 22 30 45 28 21 35 26 33 33 27 24 32 25 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 19. 23. 26. 26. 26. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 50.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.7% 8.5% 7.5% 5.4% 8.6% 8.3% 10.1% Logistic: 2.9% 16.8% 8.7% 3.9% 2.4% 7.2% 8.0% 13.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 1.5% Consensus: 2.4% 11.8% 6.3% 3.8% 2.6% 5.4% 5.7% 8.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 06/29/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/29/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 37 38 39 41 40 38 42 46 48 49 49 50 50 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 35 36 38 37 35 39 43 45 46 46 47 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 30 31 33 32 30 34 38 40 41 41 42 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 23 24 26 25 23 27 31 33 34 34 35 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT