* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 41 44 49 53 53 57 62 65 65 65 64 61 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 41 44 49 49 41 34 42 45 46 45 45 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 37 38 34 34 30 36 39 42 43 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 13 14 12 17 18 12 20 16 18 10 20 33 29 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 2 5 6 2 0 0 2 -1 4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 240 188 187 205 222 212 236 263 305 327 324 296 285 303 302 307 306 SST (C) 26.6 27.1 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.7 28.3 29.4 29.0 29.6 28.9 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 128 130 130 129 134 137 145 162 154 163 149 142 145 142 139 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 128 130 130 129 134 137 145 162 150 152 132 124 127 125 120 119 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.7 -54.3 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 9 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 65 63 59 61 63 63 64 57 53 54 62 60 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 6 7 9 10 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 77 75 64 52 33 33 30 0 -55 -122 -153 -130 -86 -94 -84 -111 200 MB DIV 32 31 36 43 23 10 0 7 -4 -1 2 13 -7 32 37 11 12 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 1 3 5 -3 7 0 5 4 3 6 22 12 10 LAND (KM) 902 833 793 738 562 353 365 156 22 -38 -10 104 79 2 86 234 297 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.9 15.0 16.7 18.5 20.4 22.1 23.6 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.9 50.8 52.6 54.4 56.4 60.3 64.5 68.8 72.8 76.0 78.3 79.4 79.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 19 19 20 23 22 20 16 12 7 6 8 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 16 23 18 25 27 27 38 32 28 36 33 34 26 47 31 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 35. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -1. -1. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 19. 23. 23. 27. 32. 35. 35. 35. 34. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 48.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.2% 8.7% 7.6% 5.5% 8.9% 8.9% 11.8% Logistic: 5.3% 20.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.8% 11.8% 12.9% 21.5% Bayesian: 1.9% 23.4% 7.1% 0.6% 0.2% 2.7% 1.3% 2.6% Consensus: 3.8% 18.8% 8.6% 4.1% 2.8% 7.8% 7.7% 11.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 06/29/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/29/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 39 41 44 49 49 41 34 42 45 46 45 45 42 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 38 41 46 46 38 31 39 42 43 42 42 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 32 35 40 40 32 25 33 36 37 36 36 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 27 32 32 24 17 25 28 29 28 28 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT