* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/29/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 44 47 48 49 52 55 59 63 64 65 65 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 44 47 48 38 44 48 52 56 57 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 37 37 34 35 37 40 44 49 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 9 6 12 13 13 19 18 19 19 17 11 10 13 25 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 -4 -2 -1 3 4 7 2 3 2 1 0 -8 -1 -8 SHEAR DIR 237 259 186 186 208 225 226 263 290 314 311 351 277 307 336 337 321 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 27.0 27.5 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.3 26.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 127 133 133 135 141 141 145 153 149 148 143 141 130 122 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 127 133 133 135 141 141 145 150 140 132 125 125 118 111 103 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 11 10 11 11 10 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 65 66 58 59 61 61 64 62 52 52 57 59 60 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 74 71 69 57 32 26 30 7 -32 -112 -154 -157 -126 -116 -100 -79 200 MB DIV 42 30 26 30 49 3 21 14 9 13 2 14 -19 3 8 10 -15 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 0 0 2 5 -1 4 11 4 -1 5 10 16 23 17 LAND (KM) 999 902 838 797 754 443 433 178 15 0 85 228 228 274 523 620 834 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.7 14.6 16.3 18.2 20.2 22.2 24.2 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.9 50.7 52.4 54.3 58.2 62.3 66.7 70.9 74.3 76.7 77.8 77.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 18 19 20 22 23 21 17 13 9 7 10 16 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 15 27 22 39 51 26 19 27 25 32 34 30 9 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 22. 25. 29. 33. 34. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 47.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/29/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.8% 8.6% 7.5% 5.4% 9.0% 9.0% 11.1% Logistic: 5.5% 21.4% 11.1% 5.4% 3.7% 13.9% 17.1% 22.5% Bayesian: 1.7% 20.5% 5.2% 0.5% 0.2% 2.5% 1.1% 1.9% Consensus: 3.7% 18.2% 8.3% 4.5% 3.1% 8.5% 9.1% 11.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 06/29/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/29/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 38 41 44 47 48 38 44 48 52 56 57 58 58 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 38 41 44 45 35 41 45 49 53 54 55 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 33 36 39 40 30 36 40 44 48 49 50 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 27 30 31 21 27 31 35 39 40 41 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT