* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/29/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 37 40 42 44 44 45 48 50 52 55 57 58 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 37 40 42 44 44 37 41 44 46 48 50 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 36 37 38 38 32 35 36 37 40 42 45 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 5 2 7 12 15 20 18 24 18 18 11 17 17 15 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 1 -1 0 0 5 6 5 1 2 5 2 2 -5 2 SHEAR DIR 223 246 272 200 188 222 216 245 263 302 311 318 324 317 319 331 341 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 29.0 28.4 29.3 28.9 28.6 27.7 26.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 122 125 133 135 136 141 142 155 145 158 150 146 136 119 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 122 125 133 135 136 141 142 155 139 148 136 132 126 110 104 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 9 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 59 64 63 66 65 64 61 59 63 63 65 62 56 60 65 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 75 73 70 64 44 27 18 21 -7 -65 -128 -188 -168 -94 -93 -43 200 MB DIV 27 37 31 31 25 21 29 4 19 4 20 14 12 16 46 19 26 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 2 2 2 -3 4 4 1 -7 12 0 32 -22 LAND (KM) 1107 989 889 827 776 626 372 377 129 -25 3 93 152 147 412 406 709 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.4 13.0 13.9 15.2 17.0 18.9 20.9 22.9 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.9 48.6 50.3 52.0 55.7 59.7 63.9 68.3 72.3 75.6 77.8 78.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 17 18 19 20 23 22 21 16 13 11 13 20 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 16 6 3 12 29 27 34 32 33 27 20 34 43 38 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 33. 35. 35. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 18. 20. 22. 25. 27. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 45.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/29/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 12.2% 8.3% 7.2% 5.1% 8.9% 9.9% 13.2% Logistic: 2.3% 10.1% 5.1% 1.8% 0.7% 3.3% 6.8% 15.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 5.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 2.1% 9.4% 4.9% 3.0% 2.0% 4.3% 5.6% 9.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 06/29/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/29/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 36 37 40 42 44 44 37 41 44 46 48 50 52 55 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 35 38 40 42 42 35 39 42 44 46 48 50 53 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 32 34 36 36 29 33 36 38 40 42 44 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 26 28 28 21 25 28 30 32 34 36 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT