* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 42 47 53 58 62 63 65 63 63 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 42 47 53 58 62 63 65 63 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 33 38 44 50 53 54 53 51 49 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 12 11 7 12 3 7 9 15 21 26 23 28 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 2 2 2 5 5 -2 5 1 2 5 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 47 58 72 76 59 15 6 51 295 290 277 263 282 312 336 352 36 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.6 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 117 117 117 119 123 124 136 136 137 140 140 140 132 118 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 119 115 116 117 119 123 124 136 136 137 140 135 128 118 103 100 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.2 -55.4 -54.9 -55.5 -55.3 -55.6 -55.5 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 67 65 68 68 66 64 60 58 62 58 57 62 68 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 61 65 56 51 57 52 42 37 7 -35 -44 -123 -167 -170 -175 -160 200 MB DIV 0 -2 9 21 11 3 1 4 43 25 20 15 14 26 12 22 6 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 1 1 8 24 17 32 32 37 36 15 LAND (KM) 1651 1622 1616 1601 1582 1390 1116 910 813 590 470 105 321 628 905 909 955 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.9 14.5 16.7 19.4 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.8 34.2 35.4 36.6 38.0 40.9 44.5 48.4 52.7 57.1 61.6 65.7 68.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 13 14 16 19 20 22 24 24 23 18 14 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 1 7 1 21 5 28 29 22 40 31 20 6 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 35. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 17. 22. 28. 33. 37. 38. 40. 38. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 32.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 9.2% 6.8% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 2.8% 5.6% 10.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 1.5% 5.1% 3.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.9% 1.9% 3.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/27/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 42 47 53 58 62 63 65 63 63 62 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 27 30 33 40 45 51 56 60 61 63 61 61 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 26 29 36 41 47 52 56 57 59 57 57 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 23 30 35 41 46 50 51 53 51 51 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT