* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/27/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 44 48 52 55 56 57 57 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 44 48 52 55 56 57 57 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 43 44 44 43 42 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 13 10 8 4 5 2 10 14 17 24 29 24 26 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 2 -2 2 0 4 1 3 5 0 SHEAR DIR 55 45 59 78 85 15 312 287 232 267 256 255 264 301 327 357 30 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.6 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.7 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 113 112 113 114 123 122 128 133 136 138 140 139 134 118 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 113 110 113 114 123 122 128 133 136 138 136 128 120 104 99 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 -55.6 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 68 65 66 67 63 69 66 66 61 58 63 60 55 61 68 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 64 63 66 57 53 61 46 37 16 -25 -42 -97 -146 -169 -165 -171 200 MB DIV 19 11 8 9 14 7 3 9 34 55 16 22 10 35 0 24 10 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 1 0 1 7 7 18 21 9 31 33 29 24 LAND (KM) 1568 1692 1723 1714 1693 1527 1248 1020 916 683 532 142 329 607 906 895 933 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.9 13.7 15.1 16.9 19.4 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.2 32.6 34.0 35.3 36.8 40.1 43.7 47.8 52.0 56.5 60.9 65.0 68.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 15 17 19 21 22 23 24 22 19 15 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 3 22 24 22 37 30 23 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 31.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/27/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 10.3% 7.4% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 14.1% 8.0% 3.7% 2.8% 9.6% 8.2% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 4.7% Consensus: 2.5% 9.3% 5.2% 3.4% 0.9% 3.3% 2.9% 7.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/27/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 44 48 52 55 56 57 57 56 55 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 33 37 42 46 50 53 54 55 55 54 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 29 33 38 42 46 49 50 51 51 50 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 22 26 31 35 39 42 43 44 44 43 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT