* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/27/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 35 42 46 50 51 54 55 56 54 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 35 42 46 50 51 54 55 56 54 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 34 39 43 47 50 51 49 45 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 13 11 11 2 10 3 8 13 21 29 35 34 33 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 0 0 0 6 4 8 1 -2 1 2 2 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 68 44 48 61 85 80 63 357 360 280 271 285 274 308 313 340 20 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.9 26.8 26.4 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 119 117 115 113 115 125 122 128 130 135 139 140 137 129 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 119 117 114 112 111 115 125 122 128 130 135 139 135 126 115 103 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.7 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 77 76 71 70 69 69 67 69 66 64 60 57 57 57 63 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 10 9 9 9 9 11 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 63 51 44 46 40 41 38 28 20 -2 -39 -69 -133 -171 -170 -188 200 MB DIV 68 54 41 46 51 7 -2 6 9 22 17 13 20 36 20 15 29 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 0 0 2 3 1 7 10 10 26 22 21 28 19 11 LAND (KM) 1432 1541 1622 1682 1664 1602 1566 1308 1099 966 793 576 257 455 749 974 973 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.7 13.8 15.4 17.6 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.5 30.6 31.5 32.4 33.3 35.5 38.4 42.1 46.3 50.8 55.4 60.3 64.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 12 16 20 22 23 25 25 23 19 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 6 2 1 0 0 0 3 6 21 22 24 31 24 13 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 33. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -7. -10. -12. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 17. 21. 25. 26. 29. 30. 31. 29. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 29.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/27/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 9.5% 6.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.3% 2.0% 3.2% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.5% 5.9% 3.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/27/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 31 35 42 46 50 51 54 55 56 54 52 52 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 30 34 41 45 49 50 53 54 55 53 51 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 31 38 42 46 47 50 51 52 50 48 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 24 31 35 39 40 43 44 45 43 41 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT