* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/26/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 31 35 41 45 48 51 53 54 55 53 51 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 31 35 41 45 48 51 53 54 55 53 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 37 41 44 46 45 41 37 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 15 12 12 10 8 11 8 18 26 36 35 38 40 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 3 1 1 2 3 7 5 0 -1 0 6 4 4 2 SHEAR DIR 98 75 58 48 49 60 54 357 3 298 285 272 272 291 297 320 341 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.2 26.2 25.8 25.8 26.5 26.5 26.6 27.2 27.3 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 121 116 116 113 114 122 123 124 131 133 139 135 137 133 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 121 115 115 112 114 122 123 124 131 133 139 134 129 120 118 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 73 70 69 66 71 70 70 64 57 58 60 61 66 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 73 65 54 47 39 39 40 27 30 10 -26 -35 -79 -128 -161 -118 200 MB DIV 61 73 55 50 56 18 -26 -6 28 40 42 17 17 49 39 11 42 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -3 -1 -4 0 -3 -5 8 6 22 20 5 25 21 54 LAND (KM) 1253 1341 1437 1520 1608 1683 1621 1428 1158 969 859 652 213 239 435 727 863 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.6 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.3 13.2 14.6 16.3 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.8 28.7 29.7 30.7 31.7 34.2 37.1 40.7 44.9 49.4 54.1 58.9 63.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 13 16 19 22 24 24 26 24 21 16 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 6 1 0 0 0 1 13 4 22 23 33 25 22 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 28. 26. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 27.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/26/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 11.3% 7.7% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 7.8% 3.9% 1.1% 0.5% 2.7% 4.0% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% Consensus: 2.2% 7.0% 4.0% 2.5% 0.2% 1.0% 4.3% 2.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/26/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 28 31 35 41 45 48 51 53 54 55 53 51 49 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 29 33 39 43 46 49 51 52 53 51 49 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 29 35 39 42 45 47 48 49 47 45 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 29 33 36 39 41 42 43 41 39 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT