* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/26/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 34 39 43 47 51 55 59 61 62 62 62 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 34 39 43 47 51 55 59 61 62 62 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 31 34 37 40 43 45 45 43 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 16 17 14 8 10 4 6 7 9 14 26 29 27 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -3 -2 3 0 1 1 3 1 -2 -1 -1 1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 92 109 109 105 90 84 103 189 255 290 263 270 261 266 299 310 329 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.9 26.6 26.2 26.9 27.4 27.8 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 120 118 117 118 117 115 123 120 128 133 138 136 138 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 120 118 117 118 117 115 123 120 128 133 138 136 130 124 116 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.9 -56.0 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 74 73 66 64 63 70 68 68 63 60 62 58 57 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 105 97 90 79 67 54 45 48 35 19 -1 -45 -77 -114 -149 -151 200 MB DIV 65 58 42 37 23 34 2 -8 9 51 36 32 -1 13 47 27 9 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 3 0 -2 0 0 14 10 21 30 24 36 25 LAND (KM) 1055 1188 1306 1413 1519 1740 1687 1553 1271 1054 976 733 488 260 495 754 1001 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.5 13.2 14.3 15.9 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.0 27.3 28.5 29.6 30.8 33.6 36.6 39.8 43.5 47.7 52.2 56.7 61.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 14 14 15 17 20 21 23 23 23 21 16 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 6 6 2 0 1 1 0 5 1 20 20 29 26 19 17 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 33. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. 36. 37. 37. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 26.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/26/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 8.9% 6.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.1% 1.8% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.5% 3.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/26/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 34 39 43 47 51 55 59 61 62 62 62 62 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 32 37 41 45 49 53 57 59 60 60 60 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 32 36 40 44 48 52 54 55 55 55 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 29 33 37 41 45 47 48 48 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT