* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/26/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 40 43 48 52 57 61 64 65 66 67 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 40 43 48 52 57 61 64 65 51 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 33 34 36 37 38 40 40 34 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 14 13 13 3 7 8 12 10 11 19 23 29 23 25 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 -1 9 8 4 2 3 1 -4 -5 -1 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 79 99 84 81 90 169 197 242 231 245 214 250 255 262 261 298 304 SST (C) 26.7 26.0 25.9 25.8 26.0 25.8 25.5 26.4 26.1 26.7 27.2 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 116 116 115 117 115 112 120 118 124 130 135 139 138 136 138 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 116 116 115 117 115 112 120 118 124 130 135 139 138 135 133 143 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -55.3 -55.5 -55.1 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 73 76 73 72 69 64 61 60 63 62 65 64 64 63 67 70 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 95 102 96 91 74 56 41 38 38 37 13 1 -12 -12 -75 -110 200 MB DIV 59 43 43 17 1 3 -15 -15 26 33 24 31 23 25 42 36 17 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 0 -3 6 2 1 1 0 -2 4 -7 -1 5 1 8 LAND (KM) 863 1008 1170 1355 1540 1807 1676 1411 1192 1006 853 538 445 68 -74 100 213 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.5 26.0 27.8 29.7 31.5 35.4 39.0 42.6 46.2 50.1 54.0 58.2 62.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 19 18 18 19 18 18 18 20 19 21 21 22 19 16 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 13 24 38 29 39 12 21 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 17 CX,CY: -12/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 23. 27. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 24.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/26/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 9.3% 6.8% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 1.6% 2.1% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.3% 3.3% 2.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/26/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 36 40 43 48 52 57 61 64 65 51 53 55 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 33 37 40 45 49 54 58 61 62 48 50 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 32 35 40 44 49 53 56 57 43 45 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 24 27 32 36 41 45 48 49 35 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT