* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 10/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 45 51 55 52 49 45 46 45 44 45 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 45 51 55 52 49 45 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 30 31 32 33 34 34 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 15 13 13 15 21 19 34 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 3 -1 4 0 5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 277 285 300 307 282 302 291 266 248 238 232 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.2 28.1 27.3 26.9 25.3 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 165 165 163 160 154 139 138 127 123 111 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 149 149 147 144 140 126 124 111 109 102 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 7 6 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 67 63 57 57 57 61 63 62 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 14 14 14 13 13 11 11 11 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 69 60 51 59 38 13 11 -6 -14 27 99 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 79 76 61 55 25 18 28 30 58 83 114 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 3 1 0 -5 -1 -1 4 23 54 -139 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 318 337 293 244 196 84 31 137 333 327 197 5 -492 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 6 8 10 10 7 11 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 76 85 93 105 111 107 98 21 37 16 9 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -3. -14. -17. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 21. 26. 30. 27. 24. 20. 21. 20. 20. 20. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.5 83.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 10/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 94.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.62 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 36.0% 21.3% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 29.5% 18.0% 5.0% 1.3% 6.8% 9.8% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.8% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% Consensus: 5.7% 22.8% 13.7% 6.0% 0.5% 2.4% 9.7% 6.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 10/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 10/24/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 38 45 51 55 52 49 45 31 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 35 42 48 52 49 46 42 28 25 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 37 43 47 44 41 37 23 20 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 29 35 39 36 33 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT