* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 10/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 44 51 54 56 53 48 42 42 42 43 43 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 44 51 54 56 53 48 34 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 34 35 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 10 14 11 15 10 13 19 25 35 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 277 269 288 287 275 284 257 263 217 242 234 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.0 28.2 28.1 27.1 25.7 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 165 165 163 162 151 140 138 126 113 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 147 149 147 146 147 139 127 124 114 102 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 75 71 66 59 56 55 56 59 61 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 12 11 12 10 9 8 8 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 62 65 60 46 47 16 7 12 9 -34 -14 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 63 71 72 49 35 28 27 9 31 40 98 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 2 0 -2 0 2 3 2 8 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 330 348 346 303 260 186 100 109 135 338 261 34 -220 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 4 7 9 10 10 12 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 75 78 82 91 99 110 121 59 21 25 12 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 19. 26. 29. 31. 28. 23. 17. 17. 17. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.4 82.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 10/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 85.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.56 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 27.8% 15.7% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 14.0% 44.6% 27.9% 9.5% 3.9% 16.4% 17.5% 33.5% Bayesian: 2.2% 5.7% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% Consensus: 7.9% 26.0% 15.2% 7.2% 1.5% 5.7% 11.5% 11.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 10/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 10/24/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 34 38 44 51 54 56 53 48 34 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 35 41 48 51 53 50 45 31 26 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 35 42 45 47 44 39 25 20 18 18 18 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 27 34 37 39 36 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT