* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 10/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 40 46 49 49 46 47 46 45 45 44 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 40 46 40 39 37 38 36 32 30 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 28 30 30 30 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 11 12 17 17 24 23 23 20 20 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 -3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 241 251 263 267 289 273 282 288 288 264 256 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.9 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 160 159 161 160 160 149 145 146 140 136 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 141 140 143 143 142 132 129 131 125 122 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 74 74 67 60 55 54 59 64 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 8 7 6 7 8 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 56 41 43 54 39 39 2 -11 -37 -8 -13 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 61 50 46 60 52 43 13 11 13 36 54 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 5 0 -4 -7 1 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 339 332 324 308 292 182 68 -15 12 137 302 306 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 3 5 5 5 6 9 9 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 93 89 88 91 92 106 104 80 85 81 45 28 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. 36. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 0. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 21. 24. 24. 21. 22. 21. 20. 20. 19. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.0 81.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 10/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 90.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.60 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 29.5% 18.9% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 9.8% 35.9% 19.4% 10.5% 5.4% 13.8% 15.9% 19.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 10.6% 3.1% 5.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 6.5% 25.3% 13.8% 9.4% 2.5% 4.7% 9.8% 6.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 10/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 10/24/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 40 46 40 39 37 38 36 32 30 29 28 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 36 42 36 35 33 34 32 28 26 25 24 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 30 36 30 29 27 28 26 22 20 19 18 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 21 27 21 20 18 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT