* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 10/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 34 38 44 48 49 48 43 36 25 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 34 38 44 48 49 48 43 33 29 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 27 24 26 28 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 17 16 11 17 14 20 17 16 17 34 49 72 101 131 120 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -2 0 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 6 2 -9 -33 -24 SHEAR DIR 234 227 240 241 250 264 281 263 280 265 257 238 232 232 232 244 268 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 27.7 27.9 26.6 24.4 23.2 19.4 12.2 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 158 158 156 154 155 154 133 136 122 106 99 86 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 142 140 139 137 134 139 142 123 125 113 100 93 83 73 72 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 9 9 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 72 71 68 60 57 53 50 53 57 67 66 76 72 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 45 42 50 46 33 28 1 -6 -22 5 22 19 70 76 137 200 MB DIV 70 73 55 35 50 75 23 24 21 28 28 74 137 180 150 97 112 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 -3 -6 0 -2 17 43 40 17 -109 -14 LAND (KM) 297 270 266 251 230 185 152 124 45 107 319 225 -92 -562 -306 -14 172 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.1 21.5 22.5 24.3 27.1 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.9 82.2 82.5 82.7 82.8 82.9 82.7 83.2 85.1 87.3 89.1 89.8 88.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 6 10 12 13 17 26 30 43 53 58 HEAT CONTENT 95 95 94 96 97 97 95 95 101 18 22 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. 34. 32. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -13. -25. -42. -62. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 19. 23. 24. 23. 18. 11. 0. -14. -33. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.4 81.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 10/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 95.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.63 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 18.7% 13.5% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 26.1% 12.9% 6.2% 2.9% 9.0% 11.3% 18.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 4.4% 16.1% 9.0% 5.6% 1.0% 3.0% 7.8% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 10/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 10/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 34 38 44 48 49 48 43 33 29 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 32 36 42 46 47 46 41 31 27 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 31 37 41 42 41 36 26 22 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 24 30 34 35 34 29 19 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT