* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 10/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 46 52 55 56 54 51 46 45 34 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 46 52 55 56 54 51 46 34 29 30 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 35 35 36 37 39 40 41 40 32 28 29 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 13 14 14 13 15 13 18 15 18 24 33 58 85 116 126 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 0 -2 -3 0 2 3 -8 -24 -24 SHEAR DIR 254 222 217 235 242 247 271 263 281 273 268 239 236 225 233 235 247 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.9 27.7 27.3 26.2 25.0 22.4 18.2 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 160 160 158 157 153 154 150 133 129 119 110 96 83 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 141 140 141 140 138 133 141 139 122 117 110 102 90 80 76 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 74 72 72 66 58 52 50 51 53 61 62 66 68 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 12 13 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 36 45 49 45 46 67 50 49 10 -5 -18 -27 -13 7 24 35 66 200 MB DIV 52 81 79 62 38 74 37 31 26 14 19 35 82 136 150 108 110 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 4 0 -4 -3 3 0 6 5 -3 -55 -85 LAND (KM) 336 306 279 272 263 227 157 113 89 70 217 375 78 -295 -457 10 216 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.2 21.4 22.1 23.5 25.7 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.6 81.8 82.1 82.3 82.4 82.6 82.4 82.3 83.4 85.4 87.4 88.6 88.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 8 11 12 13 20 25 32 41 44 HEAT CONTENT 100 96 95 94 94 97 98 98 95 75 24 18 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):343/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. 35. 34. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -6. -15. -28. -45. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -1. 0. -1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 21. 27. 30. 31. 29. 26. 21. 20. 9. -7. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.0 81.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 10/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 95.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.63 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 33.7% 22.2% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 39.1% 23.7% 13.2% 5.0% 16.2% 12.9% 20.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 5.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% Consensus: 6.3% 26.0% 15.8% 9.0% 1.8% 5.5% 9.2% 6.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 10/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 10/23/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 36 41 46 52 55 56 54 51 46 34 29 30 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 37 42 48 51 52 50 47 42 30 25 26 DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 36 42 45 46 44 41 36 24 19 20 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 33 36 37 35 32 27 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT