* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 10/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 43 49 54 57 58 56 53 46 36 24 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 43 49 54 57 58 56 53 46 32 29 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 33 34 34 34 35 37 39 39 37 29 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 16 17 13 14 15 14 12 12 14 32 45 69 96 126 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 1 0 2 0 -2 -3 -2 5 0 -13 -29 SHEAR DIR 272 253 234 219 228 234 246 270 266 284 264 247 234 244 238 231 234 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.1 27.6 27.2 25.9 24.4 22.2 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 157 157 158 158 155 161 159 139 132 128 117 107 96 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 140 139 138 139 137 135 146 149 129 121 116 110 101 92 78 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -54.4 -55.3 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 10 9 9 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 73 73 71 69 62 58 53 52 54 58 64 70 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 33 38 44 43 54 56 41 29 0 -4 -15 -12 -2 64 107 104 200 MB DIV 45 44 67 75 65 43 85 25 23 27 29 22 49 98 168 134 133 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -7 -1 0 17 39 67 0 -52 LAND (KM) 323 302 273 266 261 237 201 181 142 115 34 259 393 4 -352 -545 -36 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.7 20.7 21.0 21.9 23.5 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.5 81.8 82.0 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.7 83.5 85.5 87.9 90.0 91.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 3 2 1 1 7 11 12 12 13 22 29 38 44 HEAT CONTENT 117 109 103 101 99 101 102 102 108 105 25 14 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 36. 36. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -4. -10. -20. -34. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 18. 24. 29. 32. 33. 31. 28. 21. 11. -1. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.8 81.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 10/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 105.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.70 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 22.7% 15.6% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 38.5% 23.6% 15.0% 6.1% 20.2% 19.2% 28.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 7.2% 2.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 7.3% 22.8% 13.9% 9.5% 2.2% 6.9% 11.1% 9.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 10/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 10/23/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 34 37 43 49 54 57 58 56 53 46 32 29 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 33 39 45 50 53 54 52 49 42 28 25 DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 34 40 45 48 49 47 44 37 23 20 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 26 32 37 40 41 39 36 29 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT