* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY AL952020 09/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 65 77 85 84 86 85 82 82 82 84 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 65 77 85 84 86 85 82 82 82 84 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 42 50 57 66 73 76 77 73 69 66 66 68 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 12 11 8 11 11 7 3 4 9 14 15 14 13 15 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 2 4 0 -5 0 11 7 1 3 0 -2 -1 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 48 39 13 359 17 358 28 36 49 226 253 255 263 289 320 323 302 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 137 139 140 136 135 133 130 126 124 124 123 127 130 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 133 132 135 137 131 128 124 122 117 115 113 110 115 120 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 77 74 71 71 70 64 64 60 57 52 54 52 55 56 53 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 17 18 22 23 26 26 24 25 24 24 25 26 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 95 102 124 128 110 92 59 52 53 45 32 29 21 7 -10 -5 -27 200 MB DIV 18 42 56 86 102 116 121 109 136 77 64 40 27 15 29 -4 27 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -10 -16 -18 -13 -7 -4 0 0 1 9 10 6 6 7 3 LAND (KM) 1739 1703 1672 1664 1658 1723 1634 1570 1643 1761 1892 1964 2014 2042 2065 2032 1953 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 5 7 9 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 6 8 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 12 9 8 6 5 10 14 32 13 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 35. 47. 55. 54. 56. 55. 52. 52. 52. 54. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 33.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 TWENTY 09/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.8% 13.9% 9.6% 8.1% 11.4% 13.5% 39.7% Logistic: 5.0% 21.7% 11.2% 2.2% 1.0% 5.0% 7.3% 14.4% Bayesian: 1.4% 5.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 8.5% 30.2% Consensus: 4.1% 15.6% 8.7% 4.0% 3.0% 5.7% 9.8% 28.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 TWENTY 09/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 45 55 65 77 85 84 86 85 82 82 82 84 81 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 51 61 73 81 80 82 81 78 78 78 80 77 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 44 54 66 74 73 75 74 71 71 71 73 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 34 44 56 64 63 65 64 61 61 61 63 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT