* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 09/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 50 57 67 67 68 67 65 64 59 58 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 50 57 67 67 68 67 65 64 59 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 30 35 40 44 49 51 50 48 45 43 39 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 8 8 13 13 21 15 11 13 12 17 27 28 26 27 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 0 1 0 -2 -2 5 4 2 0 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 52 64 40 6 13 9 3 307 250 281 253 256 245 250 235 282 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.4 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 139 139 141 141 143 140 140 141 136 137 137 137 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 137 137 137 139 141 142 137 133 134 130 128 125 126 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 77 75 76 76 74 72 66 63 57 57 52 50 44 43 42 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 15 17 16 19 17 16 14 12 12 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 94 94 105 126 127 118 99 73 72 65 48 32 39 39 9 9 -35 200 MB DIV 3 11 37 58 91 102 84 119 72 58 30 28 9 13 7 12 -24 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -10 -19 -21 -12 -7 -2 1 -2 3 8 3 9 4 -5 LAND (KM) 1641 1737 1691 1653 1620 1636 1493 1337 1299 1286 1293 1346 1445 1420 1423 1350 1312 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 11 11 11 7 7 11 10 7 8 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 10 11 12 18 19 18 28 40 29 19 22 31 34 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -13. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 25. 32. 42. 42. 43. 42. 40. 39. 34. 33. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 32.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 09/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 16.8% 11.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 13.1% 5.7% 1.2% 0.6% 4.9% 8.7% 10.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 2.9% 16.5% Consensus: 2.5% 12.3% 6.2% 3.2% 0.2% 1.9% 7.4% 9.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 09/12/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 40 50 57 67 67 68 67 65 64 59 58 58 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 48 55 65 65 66 65 63 62 57 56 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 43 50 60 60 61 60 58 57 52 51 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 35 42 52 52 53 52 50 49 44 43 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT