* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 09/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 36 46 59 70 81 90 98 100 105 103 104 109 112 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 36 46 59 70 81 90 98 100 105 103 104 109 112 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 37 45 54 66 78 89 95 96 92 90 92 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 16 13 9 12 12 15 9 8 4 9 16 15 12 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -6 -3 -3 -2 -8 -6 -1 4 1 0 -4 -4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 51 56 63 69 65 52 38 33 356 14 291 274 260 283 277 294 204 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 141 142 143 144 145 144 148 149 149 150 149 150 150 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 138 141 142 143 144 145 144 147 147 146 146 143 143 144 152 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 75 73 70 68 58 60 57 57 51 49 46 42 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 14 15 17 20 20 21 24 26 25 27 26 27 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR 89 91 90 103 119 110 116 91 89 80 71 66 79 81 93 79 -23 200 MB DIV 9 -12 -7 18 49 97 91 86 83 33 46 15 19 16 4 0 -34 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -2 -4 -15 -17 -11 -10 -7 -5 0 4 2 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1530 1675 1743 1674 1617 1555 1400 1208 1088 1001 970 989 886 867 802 604 491 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 12 11 11 13 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 9 11 11 15 23 23 31 25 25 48 52 54 69 38 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 409 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 11. 13. 10. 10. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 11. 21. 34. 45. 56. 65. 73. 75. 80. 78. 79. 84. 87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 31.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 09/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 15.1% 10.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 11.1% 5.4% 1.0% 0.6% 3.6% 9.0% 10.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 1.8% 9.4% Consensus: 2.2% 10.9% 5.7% 3.0% 0.2% 1.5% 7.1% 6.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 09/12/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 36 46 59 70 81 90 98 100 105 103 104 109 112 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 33 43 56 67 78 87 95 97 102 100 101 106 109 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 28 38 51 62 73 82 90 92 97 95 96 101 104 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 43 54 65 74 82 84 89 87 88 93 96 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT