* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 09/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 35 41 48 55 61 65 65 67 66 64 64 68 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 35 41 48 55 61 65 65 67 66 64 64 68 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 41 47 54 59 61 61 57 53 50 50 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 20 18 19 12 10 9 12 17 27 29 33 28 20 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -6 -3 -5 -3 -1 2 1 -1 0 3 0 -1 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 46 44 67 66 60 48 13 325 318 284 294 284 273 258 247 232 97 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.3 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 130 134 135 133 135 143 138 138 142 140 146 151 155 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 129 131 131 129 134 143 138 138 142 140 146 151 152 149 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 9 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 78 80 79 80 80 80 76 73 67 63 62 64 58 54 49 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 96 95 100 114 132 117 105 66 34 28 22 29 39 54 81 82 200 MB DIV 56 48 17 0 12 33 55 121 108 106 83 60 50 39 40 25 49 700-850 TADV -5 -12 0 -1 -1 -5 -13 -26 -27 -18 -36 -42 -19 -2 6 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 903 1088 1195 1298 1373 1521 1708 1816 1707 1524 1389 1347 1121 865 486 249 224 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.8 14.8 15.9 17.1 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.0 26.8 27.9 28.9 29.7 31.2 33.1 35.8 39.2 42.7 46.3 49.8 53.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 14 10 9 8 8 12 15 18 18 18 18 19 18 15 8 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 9 13 12 8 7 13 13 10 32 21 49 64 42 49 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 346 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 16. 23. 30. 36. 40. 40. 42. 41. 39. 39. 43. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 25.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 09/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.4% 11.7% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 19.7% 9.7% 3.4% 2.7% 9.9% 20.2% 22.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 18.6% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 4.2% 16.4% 36.8% Consensus: 3.7% 18.2% 7.9% 4.1% 0.9% 4.7% 15.4% 19.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 09/11/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 35 41 48 55 61 65 65 67 66 64 64 68 72 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 44 51 57 61 61 63 62 60 60 64 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 39 46 52 56 56 58 57 55 55 59 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 38 44 48 48 50 49 47 47 51 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT