* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 09/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 25 31 37 45 51 55 61 68 73 77 79 81 81 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 25 31 37 45 51 55 61 68 73 77 79 81 81 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 23 26 30 35 40 44 49 56 61 64 67 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 18 15 15 12 7 2 11 11 5 3 8 8 9 16 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -3 0 1 -3 1 7 8 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 82 69 72 83 101 90 90 45 332 359 2 298 338 338 295 272 266 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 27.3 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 129 125 122 127 133 132 132 133 137 138 137 136 135 132 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 126 122 118 122 129 129 130 128 130 130 129 129 128 128 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 7 8 700-500 MB RH 83 80 80 78 76 74 72 70 69 67 68 65 65 65 64 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 104 113 118 119 131 99 85 49 18 20 26 34 52 30 26 26 200 MB DIV 71 62 60 38 35 22 27 60 57 53 60 58 37 22 16 7 26 700-850 TADV 5 0 -2 4 10 0 -2 -4 -7 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 538 661 761 856 955 1097 1267 1451 1648 1790 1778 1776 1798 1807 1768 1713 1678 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.5 22.7 23.7 24.6 25.6 27.2 28.8 30.5 32.4 34.1 35.3 36.1 37.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 7 5 4 5 6 8 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 6 4 3 6 11 9 7 8 13 14 14 15 17 8 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 38. 39. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 17. 25. 31. 35. 41. 48. 53. 57. 59. 61. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.7 21.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 09/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 25.3% 11.4% 4.8% 4.9% 11.0% 14.1% 36.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 21.9% Consensus: 1.3% 10.0% 3.9% 1.6% 1.6% 3.8% 4.9% 19.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 09/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 24 25 31 37 45 51 55 61 68 73 77 79 81 81 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 28 34 42 48 52 58 65 70 74 76 78 78 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 24 30 38 44 48 54 61 66 70 72 74 74 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT