* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 08/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 46 53 57 57 55 57 54 58 61 66 70 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 46 53 57 57 55 57 54 58 61 66 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 38 42 46 50 49 46 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 11 12 5 4 8 16 19 21 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 1 0 3 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 93 88 81 55 53 317 264 273 262 272 248 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 135 133 132 131 133 136 143 145 145 147 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 135 132 132 131 132 136 143 143 140 141 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 62 62 61 60 55 55 55 55 54 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 29 25 26 29 15 18 16 0 -19 -20 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 31 24 5 -16 -51 -48 -23 3 29 29 46 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 6 8 13 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1590 1536 1441 1366 1299 1139 1031 1028 933 815 687 433 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 12 13 13 15 16 14 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 17 23 24 17 25 21 18 45 42 53 40 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 23. 27. 27. 25. 27. 24. 28. 31. 36. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 38.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 08/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 17.9% 12.8% 9.7% 7.9% 10.9% 12.1% 19.9% Logistic: 2.4% 10.2% 4.3% 1.1% 0.7% 7.7% 16.8% 26.5% Bayesian: 1.2% 25.2% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.1% 17.7% 6.8% 3.7% 2.9% 6.9% 9.7% 15.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 08/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 08/11/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 40 46 53 57 57 55 57 54 58 61 66 70 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 38 44 51 55 55 53 55 52 56 59 64 68 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 40 47 51 51 49 51 48 52 55 60 64 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 32 39 43 43 41 43 40 44 47 52 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT