* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 08/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 37 41 49 54 58 60 59 57 53 50 47 48 49 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 37 41 49 54 58 60 59 57 53 50 47 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 39 43 47 49 49 46 41 37 33 31 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 10 7 8 6 11 21 25 35 26 36 34 37 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -4 3 -3 -5 -8 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 87 86 79 85 64 12 331 294 265 265 262 265 262 278 287 292 296 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 135 132 130 126 129 131 134 139 140 137 142 142 140 139 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 135 131 128 123 126 128 130 132 130 125 126 123 118 116 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 61 58 58 57 59 55 52 48 50 50 48 49 50 53 53 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 20 26 36 31 30 23 17 6 -13 -32 -49 -71 -86 -91 -112 -101 200 MB DIV 17 14 34 19 11 -33 -42 -47 -17 31 30 42 12 -16 -31 -24 -61 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -2 1 0 1 5 11 15 19 17 18 13 9 1 -4 LAND (KM) 1628 1647 1575 1498 1422 1341 1264 1263 1283 1207 1123 1013 971 983 1001 1007 962 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.7 14.5 15.8 17.2 18.8 20.3 21.7 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.8 38.1 39.4 40.6 41.8 44.0 46.2 48.7 51.1 53.4 55.2 56.7 57.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 14 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 17 15 20 16 8 21 23 20 30 34 26 25 22 21 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 19. 24. 28. 30. 29. 27. 23. 20. 17. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 36.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 08/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 17.7% 12.5% 8.9% 7.4% 10.4% 12.2% 19.6% Logistic: 5.7% 21.2% 11.8% 3.0% 1.9% 10.5% 15.2% 7.3% Bayesian: 2.3% 15.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 3.0% 6.6% 0.1% Consensus: 4.4% 18.1% 9.0% 4.0% 3.1% 8.0% 11.4% 9.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 08/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 08/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 37 41 49 54 58 60 59 57 53 50 47 48 49 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 34 38 46 51 55 57 56 54 50 47 44 45 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 34 42 47 51 53 52 50 46 43 40 41 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 35 40 44 46 45 43 39 36 33 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT