* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 08/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 34 40 46 51 53 55 54 53 50 48 49 51 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 34 40 46 51 53 55 54 53 50 48 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 33 35 35 33 31 28 26 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 13 11 11 8 10 13 22 27 35 32 36 31 23 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -5 -1 0 -3 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 85 85 82 81 72 16 6 308 274 283 260 275 273 275 282 310 265 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 139 132 128 126 133 132 134 140 140 140 144 146 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 142 139 131 126 122 131 129 130 134 130 128 129 128 130 133 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 60 60 61 56 50 50 50 50 49 51 53 55 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 41 32 25 22 33 28 28 16 14 -3 -19 -43 -56 -72 -81 -99 -97 200 MB DIV 33 34 26 24 16 -24 -27 -61 -33 -5 36 23 23 2 -30 -28 -18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 0 4 7 8 12 22 14 17 5 6 -6 LAND (KM) 1605 1598 1606 1583 1511 1377 1303 1230 1245 1209 1137 986 858 764 729 689 636 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.9 13.8 14.7 16.0 17.3 18.8 20.1 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.7 37.9 39.1 40.2 42.5 44.7 47.1 49.5 52.0 54.4 56.5 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 11 13 14 14 12 11 9 7 5 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 18 16 18 13 9 32 20 19 30 35 30 27 25 25 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -13. -16. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 15. 21. 26. 28. 30. 29. 28. 25. 23. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 35.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 08/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 14.4% 10.2% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 10.5% 5.5% 1.8% 0.9% 4.1% 7.1% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 9.8% 5.4% 3.0% 0.3% 1.5% 5.6% 2.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 08/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 08/11/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 34 40 46 51 53 55 54 53 50 48 49 51 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 33 39 45 50 52 54 53 52 49 47 48 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 29 35 41 46 48 50 49 48 45 43 44 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 28 34 39 41 43 42 41 38 36 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT