* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 08/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 31 36 42 48 52 56 60 62 67 71 76 80 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 31 36 42 48 52 56 60 62 67 71 76 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 28 31 35 37 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 17 15 15 13 12 8 5 9 8 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 1 0 3 -1 -4 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 84 90 88 80 44 30 21 325 294 326 265 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.5 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 138 141 141 141 135 132 136 134 136 146 150 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 138 141 141 141 135 132 136 134 136 146 150 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 58 59 62 62 59 54 56 56 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 36 26 20 19 23 19 14 6 7 -1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 30 37 26 32 9 -33 -36 -38 -16 17 38 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1640 1638 1645 1615 1593 1460 1268 1087 1022 937 790 564 522 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 13 13 12 14 15 17 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 15 27 22 18 20 19 34 24 18 47 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 31. 35. 37. 42. 46. 51. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 33.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 08/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 15.8% 11.2% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 8.0% 4.5% 1.9% 1.0% 4.1% 5.7% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 9.1% 5.6% 3.4% 0.3% 1.4% 5.1% 4.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 08/10/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 31 36 42 48 52 56 60 62 67 71 76 80 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 30 35 41 47 51 55 59 61 66 70 75 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 27 32 38 44 48 52 56 58 63 67 72 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 20 25 31 37 41 45 49 51 56 60 65 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT