* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 08/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 25 29 35 40 48 53 57 62 63 66 65 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 25 29 35 40 48 53 57 62 63 66 65 68 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 23 25 27 30 35 40 44 47 48 49 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 20 18 19 15 12 5 4 5 10 11 17 21 18 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 -1 1 0 -2 0 -2 0 -3 4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 75 85 96 94 90 79 78 2 264 290 253 262 243 251 235 250 SST (C) 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 140 144 142 141 136 135 137 136 138 147 148 150 149 149 149 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 140 144 142 140 136 135 137 136 138 147 148 148 145 143 144 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 62 60 60 63 61 54 54 54 55 56 57 58 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 10 9 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 44 41 32 33 30 27 21 24 15 10 -13 -7 -12 0 -32 200 MB DIV 26 41 40 33 27 30 -36 -39 -48 -16 21 19 28 46 23 29 12 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 0 -2 -2 1 0 -1 -2 0 2 8 7 10 3 5 LAND (KM) 1644 1591 1558 1551 1552 1430 1213 1100 932 850 791 605 568 440 201 11 70 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 13 10 10 12 12 13 15 14 13 14 13 12 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 14 21 19 17 23 23 33 19 23 47 43 39 48 58 58 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -20. -20. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 0. 4. 10. 15. 23. 28. 32. 37. 38. 41. 40. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 33.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 08/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 15.5% 10.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.8% 4.6% 2.1% 0.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 8.5% 5.5% 3.4% 0.1% 0.8% 4.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 08/10/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 25 25 29 35 40 48 53 57 62 63 66 65 68 68 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 24 28 34 39 47 52 56 61 62 65 64 67 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 26 32 37 45 50 54 59 60 63 62 65 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 19 25 30 38 43 47 52 53 56 55 58 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT