* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 08/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 30 34 42 49 54 59 64 66 65 66 65 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 30 34 42 49 54 59 64 66 65 66 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 28 31 36 41 44 46 46 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 22 22 19 19 16 15 11 5 8 14 13 21 22 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 61 61 72 79 85 79 79 66 69 15 287 294 252 259 247 263 248 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 133 136 141 142 137 133 133 134 136 140 142 143 147 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 133 136 141 142 137 133 132 134 135 139 138 137 138 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 66 66 63 60 61 57 50 49 48 48 50 52 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 12 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 40 31 34 38 44 42 34 33 35 20 14 4 -13 -36 -48 -66 -63 200 MB DIV 38 26 22 26 34 33 40 -25 -32 -43 -10 13 17 7 17 -8 -17 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 -2 -3 1 0 0 3 6 8 14 9 8 2 LAND (KM) 1445 1619 1634 1574 1525 1499 1395 1244 1153 1069 1077 1049 958 823 606 413 285 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.4 13.3 14.6 16.0 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.0 31.7 33.3 34.6 35.9 38.4 40.7 43.0 45.1 47.6 50.1 52.9 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 14 13 13 12 11 12 11 14 14 15 14 12 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 7 11 17 17 26 22 27 29 17 32 34 59 46 43 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -6. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 9. 17. 24. 29. 34. 39. 41. 40. 41. 40. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 30.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 08/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 13.1% 9.3% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 4.6% 4.8% 2.3% 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.4% 4.8% 3.0% 0.2% 0.4% 3.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 08/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 26 30 34 42 49 54 59 64 66 65 66 65 66 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 29 33 41 48 53 58 63 65 64 65 64 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 25 29 37 44 49 54 59 61 60 61 60 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 19 23 31 38 43 48 53 55 54 55 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT