* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 08/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 51 60 67 70 76 76 77 76 76 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 51 60 67 70 76 76 77 76 76 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 28 30 32 36 42 50 56 61 61 59 57 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 20 19 15 12 10 8 3 2 10 15 25 22 26 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 8 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 66 60 55 64 74 101 78 81 65 69 277 277 264 253 250 241 230 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.0 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.7 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 132 134 138 144 138 135 137 138 134 144 146 144 146 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 132 134 138 144 138 135 137 138 134 144 145 141 141 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 64 64 66 60 60 57 52 50 50 48 53 56 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 14 13 12 12 12 10 10 7 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 32 25 27 43 29 36 30 22 22 17 3 -9 -12 -26 -33 200 MB DIV 47 53 31 14 14 23 38 12 -23 -21 -15 21 22 17 27 4 17 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -7 -6 -5 1 -4 -1 -1 -4 -2 3 10 12 13 9 12 LAND (KM) 1230 1413 1581 1674 1605 1526 1431 1236 1089 955 912 946 791 760 485 247 178 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.2 13.1 14.4 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.8 31.4 33.1 34.6 37.5 40.3 42.9 45.4 47.8 50.4 53.1 55.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 16 14 14 13 13 11 13 14 15 15 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 5 6 12 19 22 22 37 28 16 47 40 42 42 44 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -9. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 19. 27. 35. 42. 45. 51. 51. 52. 51. 51. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 28.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 08/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 17.2% 12.3% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 5.9% 8.3% 4.9% 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.8% 7.0% 4.7% 0.2% 0.7% 4.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 08/09/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 51 60 67 70 76 76 77 76 76 76 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 41 48 57 64 67 73 73 74 73 73 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 36 43 52 59 62 68 68 69 68 68 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 35 44 51 54 60 60 61 60 60 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT