* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 06/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 33 30 24 18 17 22 19 20 23 27 29 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 33 30 24 18 17 22 19 20 23 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 38 39 38 36 34 36 40 42 43 45 47 39 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 10 4 9 17 24 24 21 16 5 8 7 14 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -5 -6 -2 -3 -1 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 4 4 1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 135 92 77 95 23 56 42 58 70 97 99 98 344 265 233 230 233 SST (C) 22.6 21.4 20.4 20.5 21.1 21.6 17.9 15.6 12.3 9.5 7.0 12.7 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.4 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 89 83 79 79 81 83 72 69 67 66 67 71 76 77 78 78 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 73 70 70 70 72 66 65 65 65 66 69 72 73 73 72 69 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.2 -57.4 -57.6 -57.5 -57.9 -57.6 -57.5 -57.2 -57.0 -57.1 -57.5 -57.7 -58.0 -57.4 -57.1 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -1.4 -1.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 65 62 63 58 56 53 57 62 61 55 48 42 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 4 4 8 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 3 4 -10 -6 -22 -41 -46 -7 -6 -23 -23 -38 -43 -38 -57 200 MB DIV -3 0 8 15 -3 -20 -16 -40 1 0 -13 -15 -39 -26 -19 -7 1 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -2 11 0 -1 14 9 12 13 13 21 3 -13 -26 -34 LAND (KM) 411 348 327 314 278 268 313 278 278 123 364 878 1481 1368 780 318 -101 LAT (DEG N) 38.6 39.5 40.2 40.7 41.0 41.4 41.9 42.8 44.1 45.6 46.5 46.3 45.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.3 67.0 66.6 66.0 65.4 63.9 62.2 60.2 57.6 53.8 48.3 41.4 33.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 13 17 22 26 28 29 25 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -16. -12. -16. -18. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -0. -6. -12. -13. -8. -11. -10. -7. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.6 67.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 06/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 17.4% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.4% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 06/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 06/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 33 33 33 30 24 18 17 22 19 20 23 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 31 31 28 22 16 15 20 17 18 21 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 27 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT