* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 06/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 37 37 38 36 30 22 18 18 19 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 37 37 38 36 30 22 18 18 19 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 39 40 42 42 41 39 36 35 37 40 43 43 42 34 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 8 11 12 4 8 23 31 33 24 11 8 32 45 43 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -2 -6 -7 -4 -1 -3 -5 -5 -3 2 8 8 8 12 11 SHEAR DIR 155 140 109 90 104 7 34 38 62 82 95 97 212 229 227 236 240 SST (C) 23.7 23.9 23.2 22.1 21.3 18.6 16.2 14.6 12.0 9.9 7.9 10.5 15.3 16.0 16.1 15.6 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 96 97 92 86 82 73 69 67 66 66 67 69 76 78 78 78 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 83 79 75 72 66 64 64 64 64 65 68 73 75 75 75 74 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.2 -57.2 -57.3 -57.4 -57.6 -57.8 -57.6 -57.4 -56.9 -56.8 -56.9 -57.0 -56.0 -55.1 -54.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.7 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 3 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 66 63 63 63 63 62 61 58 54 55 57 59 57 54 43 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 6 4 4 5 6 6 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -2 -8 -8 -4 -7 -4 -29 -27 -9 -26 -15 -12 -26 -25 -47 -112 200 MB DIV 15 10 -2 4 17 -33 0 -51 -23 -5 -27 -11 -13 -10 -8 9 -35 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -4 -2 1 5 0 0 0 25 44 7 -46 -36 7 40 LAND (KM) 478 415 372 323 268 230 266 244 238 156 219 692 1324 1351 540 15 -38 LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.9 39.8 40.6 41.1 41.8 42.3 43.0 44.1 45.4 46.3 46.3 45.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.3 66.7 66.3 65.8 65.2 63.9 62.4 60.7 58.5 55.2 50.3 43.9 35.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 6 6 6 8 12 15 20 25 32 38 37 40 42 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 4. -0. -5. -7. -8. -13. -20. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -15. -17. -16. -16. -15. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 6. 0. -8. -12. -12. -11. -13. -17. -20. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 37.9 67.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 06/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.19 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.14 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.4% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 6.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 06/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 06/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 36 37 37 38 36 30 22 18 18 19 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 33 34 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 28 29 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT