* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 06/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 34 35 37 39 39 37 31 25 22 24 23 22 25 28 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 34 35 37 39 39 37 31 27 25 26 25 24 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 36 37 38 38 37 36 38 42 45 47 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 11 9 13 5 7 14 22 24 22 16 21 20 18 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -7 -1 -5 -3 -5 -2 -4 -4 -5 0 1 -1 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 193 160 155 118 106 81 56 23 40 60 104 148 194 230 262 272 262 SST (C) 25.7 25.0 25.3 25.2 25.2 20.3 16.7 14.3 11.6 9.1 5.7 10.2 13.4 15.1 16.1 17.6 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 111 106 108 107 106 79 69 66 66 66 67 70 73 74 74 76 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 90 91 89 88 70 64 63 63 65 66 69 70 71 70 71 72 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.5 -57.3 -57.3 -57.3 -57.4 -57.8 -57.5 -57.2 -56.5 -56.2 -56.1 -56.3 -56.0 -56.2 -55.6 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 67 66 62 62 58 56 52 56 50 49 47 46 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 3 3 5 6 3 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 16 10 -5 -13 -10 -14 -2 -22 -49 -25 4 -8 -12 -40 -27 -6 0 200 MB DIV -14 27 6 -10 0 3 -27 -23 -32 4 -15 -10 -7 -40 -5 -18 -8 700-850 TADV 5 -1 -5 2 -5 7 -2 1 5 4 4 -19 -54 -38 0 0 -6 LAND (KM) 595 520 469 445 359 276 275 236 211 74 173 741 1401 1215 835 431 160 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 37.6 38.6 39.5 40.3 41.5 42.3 43.1 44.3 46.2 48.2 49.3 48.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.8 67.0 66.2 65.5 64.9 63.5 62.1 60.6 58.7 55.8 50.6 42.9 33.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 7 7 7 11 17 23 28 30 27 22 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 6. 3. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -17. -14. -14. -16. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 14. 12. 6. 0. -3. -1. -2. -3. 0. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.6 67.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 06/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.79 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 3.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 2.7% 2.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.8% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 06/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 06/21/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 32 34 35 37 39 39 37 31 27 25 26 25 24 27 30 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 30 32 34 34 32 26 22 20 21 20 19 22 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 28 28 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT