* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 10/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 22 22 24 24 23 26 32 41 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 22 22 24 24 23 26 32 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 21 22 25 28 30 33 26 30 9 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -1 1 3 2 0 0 -3 -2 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 273 256 267 271 265 270 265 271 271 298 269 353 19 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 156 161 153 153 158 157 154 159 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 154 155 160 150 150 157 155 152 159 162 162 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 57 54 51 52 51 52 54 58 61 63 63 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -7 -12 -5 -13 -20 -7 -12 7 3 -1 -15 -11 200 MB DIV 13 5 -13 -19 -27 0 20 -7 15 0 10 -8 18 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 637 606 606 625 648 571 416 257 223 289 410 336 222 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.8 13.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 50.7 51.8 52.7 53.5 54.3 55.9 57.5 59.3 61.1 63.1 65.2 67.7 70.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 27 29 33 32 41 55 59 49 51 67 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -6. -9. -14. -16. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. 1. 7. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 50.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 10/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.93 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 15.4% 10.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 6.0% 5.1% 2.3% 0.4% 1.4% 0.7% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 7.1% 5.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.5% 2.8% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 10/15/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 10/15/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 23 22 22 22 24 24 23 26 32 41 18HR AGO 25 24 24 23 22 22 22 24 24 23 26 32 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 19 19 21 21 20 23 29 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT