* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 10/14/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 22 23 25 26 26 28 33 42 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 22 23 25 26 26 28 33 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 13 20 23 27 28 35 21 28 16 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 1 -1 2 1 -2 0 -6 -6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 291 264 257 270 272 265 273 269 290 279 337 207 93 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.3 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 155 151 149 156 149 152 159 158 157 157 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 155 149 146 153 144 147 155 155 152 152 157 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 55 56 51 50 51 51 53 56 59 63 63 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 -9 -15 -7 -18 -13 -12 5 -7 -16 -30 -40 200 MB DIV 25 24 6 -8 -15 -14 14 -18 35 14 3 0 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 -1 2 LAND (KM) 692 662 650 660 687 697 598 477 384 383 510 292 70 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.5 14.2 15.3 16.3 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 49.4 50.6 51.5 52.3 53.0 54.5 55.9 57.3 58.8 60.4 62.0 63.8 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 25 24 25 34 37 50 67 54 46 57 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -12. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 49.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 10/14/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.90 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 16.8% 11.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 13.8% 10.9% 4.7% 1.3% 3.2% 1.6% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 10.2% 7.6% 4.1% 0.4% 1.1% 3.4% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 10/14/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 10/14/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 23 23 23 22 23 25 26 26 28 33 42 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 23 22 23 25 26 26 28 33 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 20 21 23 24 24 26 31 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT