* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 10/14/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 28 27 28 27 31 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 28 27 28 27 31 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 7 7 12 20 24 29 28 36 28 26 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 4 1 -1 0 3 -1 -4 -7 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 276 277 270 266 275 272 271 261 276 272 300 219 283 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 29.1 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 155 153 148 146 152 147 154 158 157 157 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 157 155 152 146 141 147 142 150 154 153 152 152 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 54 56 55 53 50 51 50 53 56 60 61 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 5 2 -12 -15 -7 -28 -16 -15 0 -21 -26 -47 200 MB DIV 31 35 37 7 -19 -26 0 -13 -10 28 -4 19 26 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -1 0 1 0 -1 0 1 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 774 722 715 708 713 764 748 635 500 436 478 397 176 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.6 14.2 15.1 16.3 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.0 49.2 50.1 50.9 51.7 53.0 54.5 55.8 57.4 59.0 60.9 62.6 64.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 9 9 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 26 25 23 24 38 47 57 62 49 47 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. -11. -15. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 2. 3. 2. 6. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 48.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 10/14/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.90 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 19.5% 13.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 13.3% 10.0% 3.0% 0.8% 3.3% 2.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 11.0% 7.9% 3.8% 0.3% 1.1% 4.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 10/14/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 10/14/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 28 27 28 27 31 37 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 27 26 27 26 30 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 21 22 25 24 25 24 28 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 17 20 19 20 19 23 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT