* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 09/12/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 46 53 56 52 51 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 46 45 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 31 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 12 14 17 12 15 18 26 27 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -5 -6 -2 -2 0 0 2 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 222 222 241 243 215 256 230 237 206 217 222 232 239 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.6 28.9 30.1 30.1 29.3 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 155 154 158 162 150 170 168 154 147 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 134 134 134 141 143 130 143 135 124 117 114 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 4 7 5 8 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 54 55 53 59 59 59 58 59 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 9 11 11 10 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 19 27 21 14 14 -3 -1 -26 -13 -54 -10 -14 15 200 MB DIV 30 23 10 11 16 1 32 42 31 14 -5 0 11 700-850 TADV 3 -3 -2 0 0 0 9 3 6 1 -3 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 311 347 366 398 391 213 45 -8 -114 -155 -118 -87 -100 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 10 10 10 7 3 3 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 96 92 83 81 68 57 64 37 5 5 4 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 21. 28. 31. 27. 26. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.7 74.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 09/12/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 84.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.55 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.2% 10.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 1.5% 6.0% 12.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.4% 4.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.5% 5.4% 4.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 09/12/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 09/12/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 32 37 46 45 33 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 43 42 30 26 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 39 38 26 22 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 31 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT