* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 09/12/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 44 53 55 53 54 52 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 44 35 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 19 19 14 17 15 14 17 20 26 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 -4 -2 -5 0 -6 2 -6 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 242 226 230 247 255 233 249 233 233 224 242 243 252 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.7 30.3 30.2 29.7 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 155 161 162 168 164 171 170 161 153 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 135 136 142 143 149 144 151 143 131 123 120 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 8 4 9 4 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 54 54 56 55 59 57 58 56 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 9 8 10 8 6 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 22 22 14 11 -15 6 -23 -37 -75 -57 -52 200 MB DIV 28 30 20 5 11 16 13 47 5 26 1 3 1 700-850 TADV 2 3 -1 -2 0 -3 5 3 6 -3 0 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 249 286 325 334 342 219 41 -88 -29 -117 -236 -281 -321 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 9 6 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 82 90 89 83 87 76 68 35 39 5 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -6. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. 0. -3. -6. -5. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 19. 28. 30. 28. 29. 27. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.0 74.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 09/12/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 86.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.57 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.2% 10.7% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 6.1% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 3.6% 8.2% 16.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.3% 4.5% 2.9% 0.1% 1.2% 6.3% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 09/12/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 09/12/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 32 38 44 35 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 35 41 32 27 25 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 36 27 22 20 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT