* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 09/12/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 29 35 41 50 57 59 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 29 35 41 37 42 44 42 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 27 32 34 36 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 13 16 20 11 16 8 11 13 18 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -5 0 -1 0 -1 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 248 261 239 241 255 247 259 233 213 176 194 202 235 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.4 29.9 30.2 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 168 168 166 165 167 171 172 167 170 168 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 149 148 147 146 147 156 160 145 146 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 8 6 700-500 MB RH 55 54 56 56 55 58 56 60 62 65 63 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 10 9 10 12 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 21 24 22 25 0 1 -22 -6 -48 -32 -46 200 MB DIV 15 28 27 24 3 31 13 40 35 28 17 8 5 700-850 TADV 0 4 4 0 0 4 0 5 3 5 3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 98 133 159 161 163 208 87 -37 49 120 29 -79 -225 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 10 11 9 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 64 60 60 63 69 78 69 52 71 33 36 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. 0. 0. -4. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 4. 10. 16. 25. 32. 34. 32. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.8 75.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 09/12/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 13.2% 9.1% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 2.8% 6.1% 20.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 6.2% 3.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.9% 5.4% 6.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 09/12/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 09/12/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 29 35 41 37 42 44 42 33 29 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 28 34 40 36 41 43 41 32 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 23 29 35 31 36 38 36 27 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 21 27 23 28 30 28 19 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT