* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 09/12/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 46 54 63 65 65 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 46 54 63 65 65 46 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 39 43 48 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 13 10 12 10 10 9 11 7 14 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -5 0 -4 -1 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 222 247 264 233 230 259 246 287 263 272 249 254 249 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.0 29.4 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 165 165 165 166 166 164 164 152 157 148 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 146 145 143 147 146 146 146 132 132 121 112 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 5 8 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 57 57 54 55 54 57 57 60 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 12 10 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 24 12 10 14 20 5 10 -10 0 -28 -17 -45 -49 200 MB DIV 16 12 23 35 23 -7 7 10 29 2 44 -2 14 700-850 TADV -3 1 1 4 -1 1 0 2 0 3 4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 157 159 166 196 237 280 312 190 49 12 6 -30 -14 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.8 24.7 25.8 27.3 29.1 30.8 31.9 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.5 74.8 75.1 75.2 75.9 76.9 78.3 79.7 80.9 81.4 81.4 80.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 6 7 9 11 10 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 64 69 71 74 80 80 97 83 67 35 41 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. 1. -2. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 21. 29. 38. 40. 40. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.8 74.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 09/12/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.47 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 16.7% 11.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 10.1% 5.9% 2.8% 0.9% 5.1% 10.2% 21.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 2.5% 9.0% 5.8% 3.5% 0.3% 1.7% 7.8% 7.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 09/12/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 09/12/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 37 46 54 63 65 65 46 36 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 35 44 52 61 63 63 44 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 39 47 56 58 58 39 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 31 39 48 50 50 31 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT