* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 09/11/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 32 38 44 52 56 60 62 66 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 32 38 44 52 56 45 46 50 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 34 31 35 38 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 15 20 21 10 20 14 20 13 18 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -2 1 1 -6 -2 -8 -5 -4 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 255 258 234 214 242 229 259 257 270 253 253 226 240 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.9 30.8 30.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 161 164 166 166 166 171 172 172 170 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 142 142 145 145 146 147 154 171 167 148 136 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 55 53 57 54 56 55 59 60 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -1 12 16 3 9 14 12 2 4 -19 2 -50 200 MB DIV 5 10 20 -5 5 31 3 8 5 32 22 37 10 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 -4 -2 2 -5 1 0 0 -1 6 4 LAND (KM) 211 233 232 231 226 267 273 268 112 -30 45 83 -67 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.7 23.4 23.9 24.5 25.1 26.1 27.5 29.1 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.1 73.5 73.9 74.4 75.3 76.2 77.5 79.3 81.3 83.1 84.5 85.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 10 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 62 61 62 66 73 82 81 96 78 37 74 36 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 13. 19. 27. 31. 35. 37. 41. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.8 72.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 09/11/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.9% 11.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 5.8% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 2.7% 6.5% 15.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.8% 4.8% 3.0% 0.1% 0.9% 6.0% 5.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 09/11/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 09/11/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 32 38 44 52 56 45 46 50 38 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 30 36 42 50 54 43 44 48 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 31 37 45 49 38 39 43 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 28 36 40 29 30 34 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT