* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 09/10/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 22 24 26 30 38 44 51 53 57 59 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 22 24 26 30 38 44 51 53 57 59 67 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 26 28 31 34 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 22 18 15 21 13 19 13 21 15 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 3 0 2 -3 -4 -6 -3 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 252 236 252 256 238 245 228 265 256 271 259 253 216 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.0 30.5 31.0 30.2 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 164 164 166 169 170 168 171 172 172 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 146 146 147 145 147 148 153 149 163 172 156 147 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 53 55 53 52 53 53 55 55 57 57 63 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 4 5 6 7 8 7 8 7 9 9 14 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -5 -6 -8 7 9 8 8 20 5 14 -5 -2 200 MB DIV 27 6 -7 -1 10 2 22 8 22 9 38 31 51 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 3 -6 3 -2 0 -1 3 9 8 LAND (KM) 242 233 221 192 181 157 165 153 177 41 91 151 22 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.4 22.5 23.1 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.9 27.5 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.6 73.4 74.1 74.7 75.8 76.8 77.8 79.1 80.8 82.7 84.3 85.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 6 5 6 4 6 7 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 64 62 62 67 71 61 67 83 76 55 62 36 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. 0. -1. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 24. 31. 33. 37. 39. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 22.0 72.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 09/10/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 14.2% 7.2% 4.2% 2.3% 12.3% 15.6% 38.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.2% 2.5% 1.4% 0.8% 4.1% 5.2% 12.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 09/10/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 09/10/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 22 24 26 30 38 44 51 53 57 59 67 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 27 35 41 48 50 54 56 64 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 24 32 38 45 47 51 53 61 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT