* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 07/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 34 37 42 48 53 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 21 23 28 31 33 36 39 43 49 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 18 21 23 25 27 27 27 28 29 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 21 23 22 16 21 16 22 16 15 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 3 3 0 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 286 282 269 278 293 277 302 304 317 325 304 287 288 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.9 29.8 30.4 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.5 31.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 150 155 167 165 171 171 170 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 142 139 145 154 154 166 168 161 155 161 170 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 62 61 62 61 62 61 61 58 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 26 32 26 13 1 -1 4 -5 19 0 -21 -45 200 MB DIV -16 4 12 12 34 7 -11 -5 -5 10 1 0 0 700-850 TADV 6 8 6 6 4 -8 -9 -9 -6 -3 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 107 23 -15 -57 -67 0 6 7 84 208 191 127 12 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.7 19.8 20.3 21.1 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 68.9 69.7 70.5 71.4 73.0 74.9 76.7 78.5 80.1 81.5 82.4 83.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 70 51 39 34 39 52 46 61 77 101 101 87 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 22. 28. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.4 68.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 07/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 2.9% 13.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 4.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 07/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 07/30/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 19 21 23 28 31 33 36 39 43 49 55 18HR AGO 20 19 18 20 22 27 30 32 35 38 42 48 54 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 28 30 33 36 40 46 52 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT