* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 07/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 32 37 39 43 47 54 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 24 24 26 31 35 38 41 46 43 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 22 25 28 28 29 29 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 18 20 16 16 20 15 20 18 21 16 12 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 -6 -2 -6 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 259 280 294 292 269 286 280 303 311 326 327 336 335 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 29.5 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 147 148 146 159 167 165 169 168 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 137 139 138 136 147 156 153 158 155 155 169 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 60 62 60 62 61 60 59 61 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 25 28 34 35 10 16 0 -2 -3 9 -4 -8 200 MB DIV -4 -4 -4 14 31 11 1 -7 -3 -7 7 4 4 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 8 9 6 -8 -4 -8 -8 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 200 145 105 46 11 -67 -42 57 26 22 118 88 -33 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.3 19.0 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.6 20.1 21.0 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.9 66.7 67.5 68.4 69.1 70.7 72.3 74.0 75.7 77.5 79.1 80.3 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 8 8 8 9 8 9 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 64 73 60 46 32 50 51 51 64 81 89 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -4. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 23. 28. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.2 65.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 07/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 10.9% 6.0% 5.1% 2.8% 7.2% 6.6% 18.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 1.0% 3.9% 2.1% 1.7% 0.9% 2.4% 2.2% 6.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 07/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 07/30/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 22 24 24 26 31 35 38 41 46 43 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 22 22 24 29 33 36 39 44 41 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 19 21 26 30 33 36 41 38 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT