* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 07/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 34 34 35 36 39 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 25 28 30 32 33 34 34 30 33 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 23 26 25 24 22 21 20 20 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 14 18 25 25 29 20 24 18 20 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 2 8 4 4 2 0 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 178 229 247 244 266 268 263 272 277 300 291 299 278 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.9 28.5 29.7 30.7 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 147 147 144 139 133 134 143 163 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 141 139 139 133 128 121 122 129 149 165 168 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 55 55 57 57 57 61 62 63 63 63 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 24 25 30 32 10 9 -13 -17 -32 -29 -18 -25 200 MB DIV 45 7 -2 8 11 17 4 19 6 3 0 3 20 700-850 TADV 6 8 7 7 7 13 1 -1 -8 -6 -10 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 341 207 86 -22 22 79 82 140 115 41 -43 20 18 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.7 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.2 21.4 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.9 64.5 65.2 66.1 67.0 68.8 70.5 72.2 73.9 75.7 77.3 78.8 80.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 45 58 62 46 33 31 33 37 55 70 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 14. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 63.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 07/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 19.1% 13.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 13.1% 7.5% 4.9% 2.4% 5.9% 5.3% 10.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.2% 11.1% 7.0% 4.8% 0.8% 2.0% 4.8% 3.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 07/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 07/29/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 25 28 30 32 33 34 34 30 33 37 18HR AGO 25 24 25 23 26 28 30 31 32 32 28 31 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 22 24 26 27 28 28 24 27 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 20 22 23 24 24 20 23 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT