* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 07/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 38 41 44 44 45 44 45 46 50 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 38 40 42 42 43 42 36 36 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 32 34 34 34 33 32 31 28 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 13 15 17 26 24 26 19 22 17 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 6 5 2 4 7 2 3 0 2 -1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 94 232 267 278 270 282 268 285 267 297 290 302 283 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.8 28.3 29.5 30.6 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 147 144 139 135 133 140 159 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 139 138 140 136 129 124 121 128 146 167 165 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 55 56 56 61 62 63 62 63 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 33 27 30 36 23 16 3 -10 -30 -17 -34 -15 200 MB DIV 36 39 3 2 24 10 9 4 -3 1 0 6 11 700-850 TADV -2 8 10 3 4 10 2 1 -4 -5 -11 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 422 357 240 123 44 32 21 78 122 24 -27 26 32 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.8 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 63.8 64.5 65.4 66.3 68.2 70.0 71.8 73.5 75.4 77.0 78.8 80.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 11 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 35 44 68 52 32 30 31 33 52 73 92 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 19. 20. 19. 20. 21. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 63.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 07/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 26.7% 16.8% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 30.4% 18.5% 11.7% 6.3% 15.3% 16.7% 22.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 26.8% 8.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.9% 2.2% 0.6% Consensus: 5.9% 27.9% 14.6% 8.0% 2.3% 5.4% 10.4% 7.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 07/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 07/29/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 32 35 38 40 42 42 43 42 36 36 40 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 35 37 37 38 37 31 31 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 29 31 31 32 31 25 25 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT